Who Will Win in September?

When we gave our way-too-early Emmy predictions last May, we correctly predicted the winners in four out of seven races.We’re kind of proud we called Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ and Claire Danes’ wins two months before the nominees were even announced.

This year’s races, though, are much harder to call because of a huge wild card: Netflix, the streaming service that entered the game with the year’s best new drama, "House of Cards," and the return of "Arrested Development."

Will TV industry professionals roll out the welcome mat for an online service that could cost them their jobs? We have no idea. So with that caveat in mind, here are our very early, for-entertainment-purposes-only guesses about who will take home gold statuettes four long months from now.

"Girls" always kept viewers guessing in its second season, taking almost as many risks as FX’s "Louie." It is a fiercely intelligent and challenging show, but it’s only occasionally laugh-out-loud funny. "Veep," meanwhile, has just crackled. Not a word of dialog is wasted. "30 Rock" will probably score another nomination, but not a win, for its final season. The show as a whole was one of the best ever, but it refused to go soft with its goodbye season. The admirable lack of sentimentality will cost it. "The Office" may also get a nod, simply because its latest season was its last one.

"The Big Bang Theory" will probably get another nod for delivering inoffensive comedy and being the most popular sitcom on TV.

The big question, again, is whether the Academy might recognize Netflix’s long-delayed fourth season of "Arrested Development," which was just released in one chunk, just before the Emmy deadline. Nominating "Arrested" would be a huge step: The TV industry would be essentially bringing its online competition into the Indoor Positioning System, and Emmy voters could celebrate a great show that never quite got the audience or awards it deserved during its run on Fox.

The race is between Julia Louis-Dreyfus, last year’s winner for "Veep," and Lena Dunham for "Girls." But Louis-Dreyfus will probably get an easy repeat for two reasons: First, she’s excellent as the unabashedly self-centered title character. And second, voters will ding Dunham for being naked a lot when she arguably doesn’t need to be and for her character’s carefully crafted annoyingness.

They may also capriciously and unfairly decide that at 26, the whip-smart writer-director-actress has plenty more time to win things.

Laura Dern, on HBO’s brilliant and painful comedy/drama "Enlightened," gave perhaps the best performance by any actress in the past year. Personally, I’d vote for her in a heartbeat. But I don’t think Emmy voters will even think to nominate her, given that she wasn’t nominated last year, and her show has been canceled.

So who else will round out the category? Amy Poehler deserves another nod for her to-be-treasured turn on "Parks and Recreation." Past winner Tina Fey should be nominated again for the final season of "30 Rock." Zooey Deschanel may be back for being so “adorkable” on "New Girl," but I’d rather see Mindy Kaling score a nod for "The Mindy Project." And we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the return of past winners Melissa McCarthy for "Mike & Molly" or Edie Falco for "Nurse Jackie."

Actually, the time was last year or the year before, but that’s OK. The comedian and his brilliant FX series, "Louie," were still new and unfamiliar to viewers then. Now he has reached the media saturation point, and voters may be ready to recognize his -- not using this word lightly -- genius.

He won in two writing categories last yeargood job, Emmys, but C.K. the performer has to sell the bits he writes, and some of them are extraordinarily difficult.

As for the other contenders: Not many people predicted Jon Cryer’s win last year for "Two and a Half Men," which was essentially an acknowledgement that he kept the show steady after Charlie Sheen’s exit and Ashton Kutcher’s addition. He’s unlikely to repeat -- and may not even get another nod.

Emmy voters are under no pressure to give another Emmy to Alec Baldwin, either, but the "30 Rock" star does deserve another nomination for staying ruthlessly funny to the end. Always endearing "Big Bang Theory" star Jim Parsons has won twice already.

Don Cheadle will probably be nominated again for Showtime’s "House of Lies," but this doesn’t feel like his year to win. That leaves room for at least one more nominee. It wouldn’t be a shock for Johnny Galecki, Parson’s co-star, to return to the running, given that their show is still surging in popularity.

"House of Cards" got critical raves this season, so this will be another test of whether the industry is ready to give Netflix its blessing. Since we published this story in our EmmyWrap magazine earlier this month, I've been reminded that FX's "The Americans" also scored with critics and is very much in contention, and Sundance's "Rectify" has earned lots of buzz for its short first season.

This is a potentially wild category. Last year’s winner, "Homeland," was perceived by many critics to suffer a sophomore slump. If Emmy voters agree, that could throw open the race. The "Homeland" win broke a four-year streak for AMC’s "Mad Men," which likely won’t win again until next season, its last one.

It’s absurd, meanwhile, that "Breaking Bad" has never won. But the first half of its final season, which aired in the eligibility period, felt too much like a setup for the fireworks to come. I'd nominate it in a second, but don't know if Emmy voters will.

Perpetual nominee "Downton Abbey" will likely be back after a particularly eventful season. And HBO’s "Game of Thrones" and "Boardwalk Empire" deserve to return as well. FX’s Soviet spy drama "The Americans" keeps getting better, but it may have too much action and not enough weeping for Emmy voters’ tastes.

"The Walking Dead" provided some of the most gripping, scream-at-your-screen moments of the year, but Emmy voters can’t seem to get past the gore and zombies.

So if "House of Cards" or other new shows join the category, what will they bump? Perhaps -- I know this sounds crazy -- "Breaking Bad." The same voters adventurous enough to vote for the meth drama may also be willing to give Netflix its due -- while making plans to recognize "Breaking Bad" next year, finally, for its final episodes.